In 2013, the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum (MOEP) contracted Lahmeyer International (LI) to provide consultancy services for the development of the Power Generation and Transmission Mas-ter Plan (PGTMP) for the Republic of Kenya.
This report provides the respective Long Term Plan (LTP) for the period 2015 (base year) to 2035. This LTP is the identification and analysis of suitable expansion paths of the Kenyan power system for that period, complying with the defined planning criteria and framework.
Analysis of past electricity demand and development of future demand scenarios,
Analysis of suitable expansion candidate fuels and technologies, their optimal sizing, siting and scheduling,
Modelling of their expected contribution to the future power generation and the probable operation of the generation system,
Modelling of the transmission grid for the year 2030 and the analysis of its performance under several criteria,
Investment analysis summarising financial implications of the expansion plans on the fu-ture investment needs and their expected schedule.
This executive summary focuses on the main results.
1.1 Demand forecast
The objective of the demand forecast is to provide a sound basis for the power system expansion planning. A critical analysis and a selection of suitable scenarios reduce the impact of the forecast uncertainty on the planning results. This will reduce the risk of costly over or underestimating the size of the power system. It is done by extensive analysis of i) input data (e.g. power sector, demog-raphy, economy), ii) frame conditions and interrelations in power sector, iii) the evaluation of de-sired and achievable targets and iv) a review of previous forecasts.
The forecast is developed for three scenarios and one sub-scenario:
1. Reference scenario: applying key assumptions for a probable development based on the historic development and actual plans (technical, demographic and economic issues dili-gently assessed).
2. Vision scenario: normative scenario; applying the wide range of largely ambitious govern-ment plans (e.g. 100% connectivity level by 2020; less challenged flagship project develop-ments).
3. Low scenario: scenario for sensitivity and risk analyses; applying more conservative as-sumptions than reference scenario and similar to historic developments.
4. Energy Efficiency (reference sub-scenario): applying the EE potential to the reference sce-nario, as detailed in the separate EE report. Kenya PGTMP Final LTP Vol-I-Main Report October 2016 reduced file size. Download the whole report here